Friday, April 10, 2009
From the recent news, it is quite apparent that the ousted former Premier of Thailand Thaksin Shinawatra is planning his counterattack on his former enemies. Thaksin applied the last strategy of the 36 Stratagems and retreated. Biding his time and now he has found the perfect opportunity to launch his counterattack. Thanks to the current global economic crisis, the current Thai government will have less energy and time to deal with his return and furthermore, Thais have become increasingly dissatisfied with the present Thai government.
The Thai government has also reacted to Thaksin's counterattack by applying Fabian's strategy; denying Thaksin any chance of direct confrontation by preventing him from returning back to his home country. To deal with this, Thaksin has gathered support of the Red-shirt protesters to fight against his adversaries. By using Thai civilians as his preemptive strike force, it makes extremely difficult for the Thai government to retaliate for fear of incurring the people's wrath.
Thaksin should be returning to Thailand in the later half of 2009 once the possibility of snap polls is realised. Puea Thai Party which was formed after PPP was dissolved, will be the main threat that the present Thai government faces. Will Thaksin be elected as PM again? It will be quite unlikely if that happens as the elite in Bangkok will probably do everything they can to prevent Thaksin from claiming power again. Thaksin will most probably install a proxy leader to represent him in this clash of powers which will threaten to throw Thailand into complete chaos. Another possible scenario will be the King of Thailand stepping in to resolve this conflict. Whose side will the Thai King support? Perhaps only time will tell.