Friday, April 10, 2009

Thaksin counterstrike

From the recent news, it is quite apparent that the ousted former Premier of Thailand Thaksin Shinawatra is planning his counterattack on his former enemies. Thaksin applied the last strategy of the 36 Stratagems and retreated. Biding his time and now he has found the perfect opportunity to launch his counterattack. Thanks to the current global economic crisis, the current Thai government will have less energy and time to deal with his return and furthermore, Thais have become increasingly dissatisfied with the present Thai government.

The Thai government has also reacted to Thaksin's counterattack by applying Fabian's strategy; denying Thaksin any chance of direct confrontation by preventing him from returning back to his home country. To deal with this, Thaksin has gathered support of the Red-shirt protesters to fight against his adversaries. By using Thai civilians as his preemptive strike force, it makes extremely difficult for the Thai government to retaliate for fear of incurring the people's wrath.

Thaksin should be returning to Thailand in the later half of 2009 once the possibility of snap polls is realised. Puea Thai Party which was formed after PPP was dissolved, will be the main threat that the present Thai government faces. Will Thaksin be elected as PM again? It will be quite unlikely if that happens as the elite in Bangkok will probably do everything they can to prevent Thaksin from claiming power again. Thaksin will most probably install a proxy leader to represent him in this clash of powers which will threaten to throw Thailand into complete chaos. Another possible scenario will be the King of Thailand stepping in to resolve this conflict. Whose side will the Thai King support? Perhaps only time will tell.

Tuesday, April 7, 2009

North Korea grabbing the headlines

First of all, I would like to apologize for taking such a long time to update this blog. As I am currently in my final semester of my University/College studies, the seemingly endless load of school work has prevented me from updating my blog frequently. Nevertheless, my exams will be over soon and I look forward to sharing my strategic insights with the world.

I found it quite shocking that North Korean actually carried out its missile testing while facing the possibility of sanctions meted out by the UN security council. However, on thinking more deeply, this action is simply a way of North Korea reminding the world of her presence and urgent needs. More pressing issues such as the global financial crisis have long since pushed North Korea out the global news radar and it seems that North Korea is getting very worried about this happening.

By launching this missile, North Korea has perhaps made a serious strategic blunder by showing its urgency and rashness. United States can make use of North Korea's desperateness to convince Kim Yong-il to denuclearise his country in exchange for concessions. Nonetheless, as Sun Tzu advocates that a desperate army should not forced into a corner, care must be taken to not aggravate North Korea further during negotiations, as we simply do not know what bolder actions Kim Jong-il will take if talks break down.